Significance of the Maharashtra Elections

Politics is a fascinating subject. There are so many variables,  facts and statistics on the same that only give us a feel of history but they will never give us never an indication of the future.

Maharashtra, as a state, has been, politically, the most reliable “congress culture” state in the country.  In the first 68 years after independence, it has been governed for just 4 and a half years by a non-congress Government, that too a minority Government, cobbled together with the help of regional congress satrap rebels.

Since independence, Yashwantrao Chavan, SB Chavan and Vasantrao Naik have left their mark on the state. They were doyens and giants who set the narrative of development for the state, and took the state to the top. The co-operative movement started and nurtured by them still exists and forms the bulwark in rural areas of Maharashtra. These leaders also took the lead in making the state one of the most urbanized states in the country.

The first revolt against this was by Sharad Pawar, who has since then been a going and coming Congressi. But the essence of his politics always remained steeped in the congress.

As in other parts of the country, it was the Ram Janmabhoomi movement that brought a change in Maharashtra also. Shiv Sena, then a fringe party was brought to the Centre stage. An even more fledgling BJP joined the Shiv Sena in 1992, very much as the junior partner.

An angry electorate, aided a great deal by rebels and revolt in the Congress saw the first non-Congress Government in the year 1995, formed by the Shiv Sena-BJP combine with numerous independent former congress satraps. The Govt. lasted for about 54 months and then was sent packing in 1999.  Maharashtra reverted back to the congress, its safest state in the country, for the next 15 years.

Then came the election of Lok-Sabha 2014. By this time, both the architects of the SS-BJP pact, Balasaheb Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan had passed away. Balasaheb had commanded an automatic respect, which was not transferrable.

Pre LS 2014 election also, there was a lot of friction between the SS and BJP. The new leadership of SS expected the same deference as before, which was not forthcoming. Papering over the differences, a grand alliance was formed and got spectacular results.  But it also showed that the BJP was no longer the junior partner, nor did it prefer to remain so.

In September 2014 the state elections were announced. Shiv Sena wanted to continue the same old way, abrogating to itself the lion’s share of seats, generally about 170 and balance to the BJP, while BJP wanted a more even relationship. The final Shiv Sena offer was 120 seats including some for allies, and the alliance broke.

BJP for its part, did not even have the 288 candidates ready for the elections. It was a mad scramble to find the people and get them elected in just about 20 days. The results gave the BJP 122 seats, about 23 short of the majority, but the biggest party, by far, in the legislature.  After a colorful start with tacit NCP “non-support” and getting the vote of confidence, the Govt. was formed. The Shiv Sena joined the Govt. in a short time, but the bitterness stayed and rankled, was clearly apparent each and every day.  Potshots and more were the order of the day.

The end of 2016 and the early part of 2017 was the time of the local body elections. Even when the congress had lost power for the 4 odd years, the local power had remained with them, due to their hold on the co-operatives of every hue, whether banks, APMC’s or sugar industry.  The last time that such elections had been held in 2012, the congress was number 1,  NCP at number 2, Shiv Sena at number 3 and BJP was a distant 4^th in rural and in urban areas.

The local body elections of 2016/17 are a complete revelation. From the 4^th position, the BJP has leapfrogged with stunning results to the 1st position, with a marked daylight between the 2^nd placed congress/ NCP and SS in the different formats of local elections

It is the first time that the Congress culture has taken a back seat. It is remarkable that the safest bastions of congress and NCP have given significant toeholds to the BJP.

While the media has been focused on the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, as has been the narrative on the social media, this remarkable success of the BJP has largely been ignored.

In Urban areas, BJP has swept the polls, winning nearly 50% of the seats, with 8 corporations being won by them, running a close second in Mumbai and the only corporation not won, was Thane. When one considers that BJP has won NCP bastions like Pune, Pimpri -Chinchwad and Congress strongholds like Amravati and Akola, the immense success becomes quite apparent.

As per the past narrative, BJP has been an urban party, so this win does not sink into the understanding of even its supporters.  What people forget is that Maharashtra is a highly urbanized state, with 45% population, as per 2011 census, being urbanized. The current ratio may well be higher and likely to touch and cross 50%. The victory assumes significance!!

When we turn to the rural areas, the victory of the BJP becomes even more emphatic.  In all 4 forms of elections, viz: Municipal corporation president’s and Municipal corporation seats; and Panchayati samiti seats as well as the Zilla parishad seats, BJP has scored over 25% of the seats and jumped from the 4^th position to the 1^st, relegating all others.

source : The Indian Express

This winning spree in rural Maharashtra is unprecedented for sure. When u consider that the congress and the NCP still control all the Co-operatives, this win seems even more incredible.

Why has rural Maharashtra turned against Congress / NCP, even if only a small bit in western Maharashtra? In Western Maharashtra, the absolute stronghold of NCP, BJP has made major inroads and won 75 ZP seats, up from just 10, while the NCP has come down from 195 to 154

The 15 years of congress-NCP rule has bankrupted the state and the distress created in rural Maharashtra by this combine was appaling. Maharashtra rural areas have been better off than the farmers of most other states for the last 60 years. Whatever the antecedents and corruption scandals of the erstwhile CM’s and ministers, they did work and created pockets of prosperity. The stress was always on getting things done, and even the rural areas enjoyed electricity much before most of the other states did.

During the period 1999-2014, the Government’s in Maharashtra negated all the work and the only rule and work were to survive. 70000 crore rupees were spent on irrigation projects which did not even increase the irrigation area by 1%

The current Govt took office in November 2014 and the focus has been to alleviate the rural distress. The #jalyuktshivar program, is a people’s participative program to conserve and rejuvenate old water bodies. Due to money constraints, the target has been to complete this program in 5000 villages every year, although in the first year over 6000 villages were finally covered. People have donated generously and more than 20% money over and above the Govt. budget was collected and used. The second year is also doing well, and the result are now becoming visible with record sowing

Latur deserves a special mention. The perennially dry district has seen distress for over 20 years, with piecemeal, half-baked solutions and no long term planning. When this Govt. took over, the CM Devendra Phadnavis had declared that he would rectify this situation and make Latur district tanker free…

And he has done it.  With proper planning and the involvement of all the organs of power viz the local administration, state & central Government and the people, this year, Latur faces no water shortage.

And Latur, for the first time since independence, has voted out the Congress and voted for the BJP. That is a reward for hard work and delivering on the promises that were made.

The significance of Latur has been downplayed by media and SM. For the BJP, it should be the showcase of its commitment to work, alleviate distress, and plan for the long term. This win also shows that elections can and will be won, increasingly, on development

While, as a generational BJP supporter, every win is important, and the spectacular show makes me happy, this win in Latur district is the most significant, and makes the case for the BJP as a party being different, is development oriented and believes in Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas